After spending the bye week practice, taking the lions share of first team reps as the Bucs starting flanker. It had looked like Arrelious Benn would receive his first NFL start, against the Bengals. Well it was premature to say the least, the speculation of Benn becoming a starter. For what ever reason, be it bad film or that the rumored learning disability that Benn suffers from has hampered his ability to grasp and retain the playbook. The team has decided against Benn getting his first career NFL start on the road in a hostile environment. As earlier this week head coach Raheem Morris addressed the situation by telling members of the media in attendance “No, we aren’t going to start him, but he is going to become a bigger part of the rotation.”

It is definitely a strange situation to say the least, that a player would take the majority, if not all the reps in practice then not get the nod as a starter. Now one could see if it was due to a starter being injured, but in this case. It seems like maybe there is something else at work. Is it hesitation by Morris not wanting to have two rookie receivers starting? Most likely not, considering the entire receiving corps is young. If I was a betting man I would place my money on the fact that just maybe Benn doesn’t have a solid enough grasp of the playbook to warrant starting just yet.

It seems no matter where you surf on the web or what radio station you move the dial too the past few days. There have been reports that starting middle linebacker Barrett Ruud is frustrated with the teams’ decision to extend Donald Penn and not him. Ruud who dodged the media following Penn’s contract extension publicly addressed the media and voiced his disappointment.

“Obviously, I’m very disappointed,” Ruud told the Tampa Tribune. “I’m not real happy about it. I’m very happy for Donald and I’m very happy for Gerald [McCoy]. Very happy for all the guys who signed the last couple of years, but definitely it’s pretty frustrating on my end.”

But now it has gotten too the point where Jeff Faine, one of his veteran teammates has decided to weigh in on the topic, albeit siding with management.

“I understand, but at the same time, [Rudd]’s under contract,” Faine told Chris Harry of Fanhouse.com. “If you’re going to have issues with the last year of the contract, don’t sign the contract. I’m really tired of [that]. … This is me, as a player — and we’ve been taught [by the union] not to talk about the league and guys around the league — but as a player in that position [last year of his contract] , I came to camp, I did everything. I could have easily done the same thing and held out for an extension and wanted a new contract … but I signed the contract as a rookie and that was the last year of my contract. If I didn’t want a five-year contract, I should have signed a four-year contract.”

Faine going public with his problems with Ruud’s contract impasse with the team isn’t going to help a team trying to scratch its way out of the cellar. Furthermore the situation surrounding both players holding out the past two off seasons is quite different in nature. Ruud who signed a five year contract after being drafted out of Nebraska in the second round of the 2005 NFL Draft by the Buccaneers had fulfilled his contractual agreement with the team and was only retained due to the fact the owners opted out of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. This called for new rules governing an uncapped season to be used, which stipulates players must have six accrued seasons to become a free agent, for Ruud it meant that even though he completed his contractual obligation he was not a free agent.

Penn who was a restricted free agent last off-season under the old CBA rules because he had only been in the league three years was tendered at the highest possible amount and begrudgingly signed. Then staunchly decided after being tendered for a second straight season that he wanted to be rewarded for the fruits of his labor and threatened to holdout as the team and general manager maintained a united front and a stance that they would not negotiate a long term deal with Penn only to turn around and negotiate a long term contract extension that was signed before the teams first training camp practice.

Ruud who has amassed 552 tackles from 2007-09, the most tackles in Buccaneers history during a three year span is left wondering about his future with the team. He skipped offseason workouts and organized team activities a year ago, hoping to force the Bucs to the bargaining table to negotiate a contract extension to no avail, but still responded with a career-high 205 tackle performance, the second most in club history.

He has increased his tackle total every year he’s been in the NFL, from seven as a rookie to 59 in his second season to 169 in his first year as a starter, and then to 178 and, last year, a career-high 205. In 2010, Ruud could join Derrick Brooks as the only players in team history to lead the Buccaneers in tackles for four consecutive seasons.

Back in April Ruud told the St. Petersburg Times “The explanation is pretty clear throughout the league, it’s a very unlucky time to be a free agent. A free agent is not a free agent right now (because of the status of the collective bargaining agreement). You’re sort of stuck. If I had come out one year earlier in the draft, I’d be fine. There’s definitely no animosity right now.

Ruud who stated he had no animosity towards the organization back in April clearly is harboring some animosity now, that the team extended Penn under a similar set of circumstances as his own. Understands it’s a business but is approaching it like a one-year-prove-it deal.

Since 1937 there have been eighty-seven rookie quarterbacks start at least six games in their rookie season and in their second year, of their respective NFL careers. Based on completion percentage, touchdown passes and yards per attempt on average those three categories have improved from year one to year two an average of: Comp% 2.33%, TD 4, Yards / Attempt .235%.

While it doesn’t mean a whole lot when talking about Josh Freeman’s development and the expected improvement many have for him heading in to his second season as the Bucs starter. It still however sheds some light on what the average improvement statistically has been for quarterbacks in year two of their maturation process throughout the history of the NFL.

It’s also an indication that some pundits and fans might be expecting, more then what the norm has been with regards to statistical on field improvement from one’s rookie season to there second season under center.

The biggest two indicators that can be derived from the data is that if a quarterback in year two throws for a higher yards per attempt average his touchdowns’ increase by an average of 6.

On the flip side quarterbacks who had no change or a decrease in yards per attempt from there rookie season to there second season usually only saw there touchdowns improve by an average of 1.4 or 4.6 less then those who had an increase from there rookie season to year two.

A higher yards per attempt average from year one to year two also saw an upswing in a players completion percentage by nearly 5%, conversely quarterbacks who had no change or a decrease in yards per attempt from there rookie season to there second season saw a decrease of nearly 1% in there completion percentage.

So the prudent thing to watch closely this coming season might be Freeman’s yards per attempt average as its a higher indicator of improved statistical play.

Clayton's tradability is next too nothing

While Iconic blocking icon Michael Clayton may be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster. His name is clearly written in pencil on the depth chart. Based on his lack of production over the years and his contract, he’s got barely any tradability.  Clayton, 27, whom general manager Mark Dominik signed to a five-year $24 million dollar contract last off-season with $10.5 million guaranteed is due a roster bonus of $1 million dollars if he’s on the opening day roster.

After re-signing with the Bucs in March of 2009, Clayton started 11 games in which he produced his lowest receiving totals of his career with 16 receptions for 230 yards and one touchdown which he promptly blamed on the lack of continuity at quarterback.

“When you have a quarterback that is set, and is going to be the guy – we haven’t had that consistency in a long time – at wide receiver that plays a huge part on what goes on in the perimeter,” Clayton told Charlie Campbell of Pewter Report. “[Freeman] is going to make that easy for all of us. It is going to all boil down to is who is out there at a specific time to make the plays. The ball is definitely going to be thrown there. We are all going to have opportunities.”

Clayton’s continued and excessive arrogance about his place on the team and in the NFL shined through when asked this off-season if he feels that he’s one of the players on the roster bubble as he told Charlie Campbell of Pewter Report.com “Like I said, I know that regardless of what happens I’ll be on a team next year,”

Based on production totally salary including his roster bonus and the fact that the Bucs drafted Arrelious Benn, Mike Williams and traded for Reggie Brown to pair with Maurice Stovall and seventh-round gem Sammie Stroughter. Other teams know that if Clayton falters during training and the preseason he’s likely to be released further dropping his trade value.

With whispers floating out of One Buc Place that the teams two starters heading into training camp are Williams and Stroughter in two receiver sets, with Stroughter moving to the slot in three receivers sets and Stovall manning the flanker position. Clayton’s value to the Bucs and his spot on the roster is solely in case of an injury and to give the sense to the rookies that they’ll have to work for there reps.

There have been plenty of fans the past year and a half, that have been debating the merits of Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting middle linebacker Barrett Ruud. Ruud, 28, has amassed more tackles over a three year span then any other linebacker in Buccaneer history with 552 from 2007-09. But such phrases as drag down tackler, not a down hill thumper and doesn’t stack and shed have all been common place when describing Ruud’s abilities or inabilities in most cases. Other then watching coaches film or being in the huddle and understanding what Ruud’s responsibilities are on every play, there’s no way to unequivocally say without a reasonable doubt that Ruud’s play slipped last season.

Considering the team as a whole, on defense was abysmal and were gashed up the gut countless times. Who’s to say that it was solely Ruud’s fault he didn’t have more tackles for loss or splash plays?

Based on a metric devised by Brian Burke of AdvancedNFLStats.com which he tries to quantify a players “Tackle Factor” Ruud among all linebackers from both 4-3 and 3-4 schemes was tied for seventh with a tackle factor of 1.51.

The seven players ranked ahead of Ruud in Burke’s “Tackle Factor” metric were as follows:

Patrick Willis 1.82
Jon Beason 1.67
Thomas Davis 1.61
Brian Cushing 1.59
London Fletcher 1.58
D’ Qwell Jackson 1.53
Ray Lewis 1.53
Kirk Morrison 1.51
Barrett Ruud 1.51
David Harris 1.48
E.J Henderson 1.47
Demaco Ryans 1.46

Just too be in the same realm, as Patrick Willis whose arguably the best young middle linebacker in the game and Ray Lewis too which all young middle linebackers are judged is an accomplishment in and of it self.

But how much better will or can Ruud be in 2010 with both Geno Hayes and Quincy Black starting for there second season? Throw in the retooled interior defensive line and Ruud could actually ascend to even higher heights in the coming season. While no one will ever confuse Ruud for being a down hill thumper, he should at least be able to stack and shed a little better while making his way through the trash and play in the opponents backfield a little more to produce some splash plays.

As fanatics for all 32 NFL teams begin to gear up and get ready for Sunday Mayhem to unleash its reign in cities across America. The best part of the NFL offseason has arrived. With the 2010 Preview Magazines hitting news stands, from all of the National Publications. That’s when you know that the countdown has begun, and we’re that much closer to the start of another football season. It’s a fanatic’s first chance to get a sense of what the National Media feels about the teams they root for.

As we know with the exception of April’s draft, along with minicamps and OTA’s, the months from February through June are long with very little actual news breaking. But the three-four weeks leading up to the start of training camps are the worse time for football fanatics. So when these publications start hitting news stands I tend to grab them as soon as I see them.  I love reading what the national media who don’t follow the team as closely as the fanatics do have to say, as well as to brush up on other teams and get a closer look at the rest of the league.

Having said that, most if not all of the five preview magazines I’ve purchased including Athlon, Sporting News, USA Today, Lindy’s & Pro Football Weekly and after reading several of the publications’ the expectations are not very high for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into this upcoming season, most of the preview magazines are predicting big things from the Jets, yet others have the Baltimore Ravens along with the Minnesota Vikings as potential Super Bowl Champions.

The average wins for the Bucs in 2010, among the five publications is four and most if not all of them have the Bucs finishing dead last in the NFC South.  Is it any surprise that the national media has no faith in our beloved Buccaneers after two solid drafts?

Not really, but four wins? Come on! There is no way with the team having a much easier schedule, added talent and a quarterback going in to his second season as the starter  the Bucs finish the 2010 season with one more win then what they had in 2009.

Now don’t get what I’m saying as the Bucs are a legitimate playoff contender. But they are vastly improved from both a talent and coaching standpoint and should be in the six-eight win range after the dust settles on the 2010 season.

In the third edition of Four Downs, the staff at Bucs Central takes a look at several pressing topics surrounding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers including the development of Josh Freeman. Issues concerning the lack of experienced depth on the offensive line. The contract dispute between Donald Penn and the Bucs, along with which undrafted rookie has a chance to make the team and contribute immediately.

Did the Buccaneers organization surround Josh Freeman with enough talent in free agency and the draft to help the young signal caller take the next step in his development?

From a standpoint of adding quality veteran help to an offense that struggled to produce points, no. However based on the additions of Reggie Brown, Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams at receiver, the team feels comfortable with the current makeup of its receiving corps. Now, whether you subscribe to the theory of addition by subtraction in the curious case of why the team allowed Antonio Bryant to walk without even a sniff of a contract proposal. It reportedly had to do with the fact Bryant was a freelancer in Olson system and caused more then a handful of Freeman’s interceptions by breaking off a route, giving up on route or freelancing on his own.

Still that does not totally answer the question. If it was enough to help Freeman take that next step in his maturation process and development. There’s really no easy answer. If the three aforementioned players produce then it will be a resounding yes. If they, along with the rest of the receivers fail, then the answer will be a definite no. But the more you look at the current receiving corps the more one gets the sense it’s shaping up to be a committee approach. With all players pitching in until one player separates himself from the pack. One last note, the amount of work Freeman has put in, in the film room, on the practice fields and digesting pass protections and blitz recognition this off season should have a positive effect on the entire offense including the receivers.

Will the lack of quality depth hurt the Bucs offensive line during the 2010 season?

Entering the 2010 season without any experienced or battled tested depth is a cause for concern. Adding to the angst is that Donald Penn seemingly is still fuming over the lack of a long term contract and has been a no show to this point. Starting right guard Davin Joseph underwent arthroscopic knee surgery this off season and is still recovering. Starting left guard Jeremy Zuttah sustained a wrist injury in the final game of 2009 season and still no word on his recovery. Then you have center Jeff Faine who missed a good portion of last season with an injury. It’s not out of the question that the backups could be pressed into action earlier then some anticipate with contract disputes, injuries and ineffectiveness by the starters. But the bottom line is the Bucs offense will go only as far as the offensive line takes them.

If the young backups are ill-equipped or overwhelmed it could spell disaster and quite possibly derail the entire offense and figure prominently into any such game plan that has the Bucs envisioning themselves as the second coming of the Air Coryell show placed on the back burner.

Will the contract impasse between Donald Penn and the Bucs have a negative effect on the teams other restricted free agents after the season?

It’s hard to say for sure. While some fans take it as a sign the Glazer’s are broke. It comes down to uncertainty with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. With the possibility of a lockout looming, the team is preparing for the worst possible scenario in 2011. Being fiscally responsible as a franchise is the prudent thing to do when it comes to paying out high signing bonuses to players that might not take the field ’11. It also allows the team to use the tools that govern an uncapped year to refortify their plans incase a new CBA is hashed out.

Having another year or even half a year to evaluate players in new schemes will also allow the team to determine if players drafted or brought in by the former regime fit the current schemes and if they are part of the foundation for which the team intends to build or if an upgrade is required.

Penn who is causing must of the fuss, should look in the mirror. If he really wanted a long term contract, why not get in the best possible shape last off season and show the team he was committed for the long haul. Instead he openly griped about the disservice and treatment that he perceived the team was showing him. But in reality Penn, who was is the same situation last year failed to show the necessary traits that a team could feel comfortable with dishing out a large sum of money to. Gaining weight and ballooning up to well over 365-pounds caused general manager Mark Dominik to become skeptical that once paid, Penn would only feel content with his status on the team and continue to grow.

What undrafted rookie from 2010 has the best chance to make the 53 man roster and produce immediately?

Out of the four most promising undrafted rookies the Bucs brought in shortly after the conclusion of the NFL draft, a list that includes QB Jevan Snead, G Sergio Render, DE James Ruffin and K Hunter Lawrence. All four players have a legitimate shot at making the 53-man roster. But it comes down to a process of elimination as to which player will have an immediate impact. With Snead battling with the likes of Josh Johnson and Rudy Carpenter it’s highly unlike, if he makes the roster he sees the field unless disaster strikes. Render on the other hand could battle for playing time out of the gate and even unseat incumbent left guard Jeremy Zuttah for the right to start.

But the early favorites at this juncture are Ruffin and Hunter as both have a much easier path to contribute opening day. With no true pass rushing specialist to unseat standing in Ruffin’s way. The 6-foot-4, 263-pounder possesses raw rushing potential evident by his 20 sacks and five forced fumbles over his final two seasons at Northern Iowa.

Lawrence is considered by many to posses a strong accurate leg and will battle incumbent Connor Barth who looked shaky between 30-49 yards going 9 for 13 for a 69% conversion rate. In his career Barth has converted 72% of his attempts from 30-49 yards. Meanwhile Lawrence connected on 18 of 19 from between the 30-49 yards for a conversion rate of 95% last year and is 24 of 26 from the same distance in his career for a conversion rate of 92%. Based on statistics alone it would appear Lawrence has the edge. But Barth has gained some trust at One Buc Place and is a veteran. So this should be an interesting battle to watching during training camp and the pre season.

With the 2010 NFL Draft, just over two weeks away. Bucs Central has got some bizarre calculations for fans to ponder. Pat Kirwan a former Tampa Bay Buccaneers area scout and current NFL.com writer, and contributor to CBS Sports’ NFL Today show, along with co-hosting on Sirius NFL Radio, back in the mid 2000′s came up with what he coined the “Kirwan Explosive Index” where he took a draft prospects vertical jump, broad jump and reps in the bench press to calculate an explosiveness score for each individual draft eligible prospect, for another metric to have at his disposal to make a far greater educated guess when selecting players in the draft.

He also, has an “Index” for grading straight line speed against a players ability to cut and change direction quickly by subtracting a players forty time from his short shuttle time to give a far greater base in which to judge a prospects ability to start and stop while simulating football movements.

In Other News

The following collegiate prospects have either had or will have a visit with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leading up the draft. The team is permitted by league rules to conduct 30 private works with prospect before the draft on 22 April 2010. As of today here is the list.

DT Ndamukong Suh
DT Gerald McCoy
DT Brian Price
DE Derrick Morgan
DE CJ Wilson
DE George Selvie
LB Brandon Spikes
CB Patrick Robinson
CB Amari Spievey
S Eric Berry
S Nate Allen
S Major Wright
S Terrell Skinner
OT Russell Okung
OT Will Barker
G Mike Iupati
RB Dexter McCluster
RB LeGarrette Blount
WR Dez Bryant

Back in 2008 Bucs Central broke down how effective each NFL teams was a getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, well those stats are back! We once again broke down the numbers, armed with are geek squad excel workbook and stats readily available from Profootballfocus.com and NFL.com we added, subtracted and divided to see just how far the Buccaneers dropped in the rankings from 2008.

Based on the information from 2008, four of the bottom five teams spent first round picks on prospects, that either play defensive end or outside rush linebacker positions, while one drafted a player that many had graded as a first round talent, but fell to the third round.

Looking at the final numbers for 2009, if the trend from 2008 continues will we see the bottom teams in terms of “Pressure Percentage” once again be drafting to fill needs?

Now looking at the stats from 2009 the ” Total Pre” column represents sacks, plus quarterback hits plus quarterback pressures. The “Total Sacks Plus Att” represents the number of passes plus sacks each defense faced. The “%” column represents the percentage a team was able to get pressure i.e. sacks, plus quarterback hits, plus pressures, then divided by the total amount of attempts plus sacks.

The “Pre Per Drop Backs” is the actual number a quarterback was able to drop back before a team was able to apply pressure.

Based on the information from 2008 & 2009, the Buccaneers dropped from 12th in the league in 2008 all the way down to 28th in just one season. It’s no secret to win in the NFL a team must do four things adequately well in order to be a legitimate contender year in and year out. Those are protect the passer, open holes in the running game, get after the quarterback and stop the run. Based on that and an earlier stats breakdown on ” Pass Blocking sack Percentage” it’s safe to say the Bucs attention will surely be on upgrading the talent along its defensive line heading into the draft and free agency.

Whether or not it will be with the consensus number one overall prospect at defensive tackle remains to be seen. But I would not rule out the team adding a few new defensive lineman to the roster this offseason.

The unraveling of the Bucs has been in the making long before the hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy, bad drafting, poor personnel decisions, inept coaching, horrendous on field execution and a total lack of conviction to a well thought out plan has the Bucs digressing to the very roots of there existence.  It didn’t happen over night and won’t be fixed until the team decides to formulate a well thought out plan of how to turn around the entire organization.

What lies ahead for the organization, was outlined by general manger Mark Dominik yesterday. With his subtle hints of how certain teams like that of the Colts, Steelers, Patriots and Eagles have gone about building a solid foundation through the draft.

Dominik who is a strong proponent of building through the draft, alluded to the team changing the way the team ranks players, the way they look at players and even discussed the fact that the team has changed the way they conduct scout meetings. To put more of an emphasis on finding players that can contribute and add value to the team throughout the draft, rather then just in the first couple of rounds.

Whether or not the philosophical strategy change, will pay instant dividends one  has to only look back to last years draft when the team drafted players that were able to compete and contribute as rookies from first round pick Josh Freeman to seventh round pick Sammie Stroughter.

Dominik’s desire to build the Bucs through the draft is sure to ruffle some feathers amongst fans, but considering the state of the franchise and the likelihood of the team being legitimate contenders in 2010 a wash, you have to admire the conviction from Dominik for trying to find long term solutions to some of the teams long term problems that have plagued the team for over a decade if not longer.

The more telling storyline will be whether or not he can avoid making the same mistakes as his predecessors made and figures out how not to waste draft value by picking players earlier than they should go. If he masters the art and understanding of how to get maximum value from his picks. That will be a valuable skill which should enable the Bucs to get things turned around quickly.

There’s a reason certain teams tend to draft better then others as they understand the value of players in relation to where they are slotted and matchup best for top value. Maximizing draft value and slotting alone wont be enough, the other half of the equation is developing said talent after its been drafted. Is the other key ingredient to building a solid core, that has long term sustainable success.