The line-up is set. You’ve spent days tweaking the roster, researching every fantasy football site on the Internet. You’ve acquainted yourself with the depth chart of every NFL roster. Sunday morning, you don’t bother with chores around the house; you tackle the waiver wire hoping to strike fantasy gold. And, when all the games are done, there’s nothing quite like the feeling of losing to the worst place team in the league – you know, the owner who never checks their lineup and has kept their team intact since draft day. Yeah, sometimes you just get unlucky.

We’ve reached the quarter point of the NFL season and there are surprises throughout. Lions and Bills are surging; Steelers and Eagles are stumbling. Tony Romo has gone from goat, to miracle worker, and then back to goat again – in a matter of three weeks! Ah, I love football season. Here are some topics to discuss as we head into the second quarter of the season.

Aaron Rodgers has carved up any defensive scheme thrown his way. Associated Press

Offensive MVP: Aaron Rodgers—It’s not supposed to be this easy. Rodgers has absolutely torched opposing defenses en-route to a NFL-leading 73 percent completion percentage and 124.6 quarterback rating. Last week, he became the first player in history to rush for two touchdowns, throw four touchdowns, and pass for more than 400 yards. He’s a must-start against any defense.

Honorable Mention: Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady, Darren McFadden, Wes Welker

Defensive MVP: Jared Allen—Strictly from a fantasy perspective, he’s been the most productive player. His seven sacks are tied for the league lead, and he’s even managed to chip in an interception and forced fumble. He’s posted at least 11 sacks each of the last four years, so it’s safe to assume he’ll keep piling on the stats as the year continues.

Honorable Mention: Jason Babin, Jason Pierre-Paul, Charles Woodson

Offensive rookie: Cam Newton—I doubt even Panthers fans thought he’d be this good so soon. The Auburn grad has been lighting up the score sheet like he’s playing Kentucky and Vanderbilt every week. His four rushing touchdowns are the most among quarterbacks and his 1,386 passing yards ranks third in the league. If only stats translated into wins.

Close Second: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Denarius Moore, Andy Dalton

Defensive rookie: Von Miller—When the Broncos drafted Miller out of Texas A&M, most projected him to be a ball-hawking linebacker capable of making 100-plus tackles a year. Based on what he’s done thus far, he could be even better. His four sacks are tops among all rookies and his two forced fumbles are tied for the league lead. Denver doesn’t have the greatest defense around him, but Miller is already making a push to be the face of the franchise.

On the Cusp: Ryan Kerrigan, Mason Foster

Biggest Bust: Chris Johnson—Normally I would mark an injured 1^st or 2^nd rounder as the biggest bust, (see Jamaal Charles) but Johnson’s rushing ineptitude has been too good (or bad) to pass up. His 2.9 yards per attempt ranks last among running backs with at least 40 carries, and he’s still yet to find the endzone. If you have other options, I would strongly consider benching him with a matchup against Pittsburgh this week.

Dishonorable mention: Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Sam Bradford, Chad Ochocinco

Biggest Surprise: Steve Smith (the Carolina one)—After spending his career with the likes of Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen and Chris Weinke under center, Smith finally has a quarterback with some arm strength who isn’t afraid take shots down the field. Once a fantasy afterthought, Smith is now one of the most dependable deep threat receivers in the game. His 132 yards per game is second only to New England’s Wes Welker, and his 22.1 yards per catch ranks first in the league among receivers with at least 15 receptions. Carolina figures to be behind a lot, so count on more downfield opportunities for Smith going forward.

Honorable Mention: Fred Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Eric Decker, Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, Preston Parker

Against the Kansas City Chiefs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to get pressure 77% of the time the Chiefs quarterbacks dropped back to attempt a pass. With a total of 17 pressures (6 sacks, 8 hurries and 3 quarterback hits) on 22 pass attempts. The defense managed to dictate the game up front and change the LOS as they were able to get pressure once every 1.29 attempts.

As we predicted the Bucs would face a far tougher challenge going against the New England Patriots offensive line, who gave up zero sacks in their first pre-season contest.

Well after reviewing the numbers there’s still reason for hope out of the revamped and still growing defense. The Patriots signal callers attempted 39 passes including sacks. Out of those 39 attempts the Bucs managed to get 10 pressures (2 sacks, 4 pressures and 4 quarterback hits) good for pressure 25% of the time on Patriots quarterbacks. Of course not near as good as the team managed against the Chiefs. But considering they were facing one of the games elite’s in Tom Brady and a well versed offensive line they were still able to manage pressure once every 3.9 attempts.

For the pre-season the Bucs have 27 pressures (8 sacks, 12 pressures and 7 quarterback hits) on 61 total pass attempts from opposing offenses. Giving them a pressure percentage of 44%, meaning the defense have gotten to quarterback’s 44% of the time they dropped back to pass or once every 2.25 attempts.

Here is the list of defensive players who have gotten pressure;

Dekoda Watson 1.5 sacks, 1 QBP & 2 QH
Kyle Moore 2 sacks & 2 QH
George Johnson 2 sacks & 2 QH
Tim Crowder 1 sack & 1 QH
Anthony Gaitor 1 sack & 1 QH
Michael Bennett 1/2 sack
Frank Okam 2 QBP & 1 QH
Mason Foster 1 QBP & 1 QH
Adrian Clayborn 2 QBP
Gerald McCoy 2 QBP
Derrell Smith 1 QBP

Lost amidst the drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs  is the the tiny little fact that the Bucs managed to get pressure 77% of the time, the Chiefs quarterbacks dropped back to pass. In fact the Chiefs tried to pass a total of 22 times (counting sacks and pass attempts) and the young Buccaneers defense managed to get a total of 17 pressures (6 sacks, 8 hurries and 3 quarterback hits) an astounding rate of one pressure every 1.29 attempts by Chiefs quarterbacks.

The defense gave up 68-passing yards on 8 of 22 attempts good for a completion percentage of 36%. All of this was done with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and cornerback Aqib Talib in street clothes. They also held the number one rushing team from 2010 to just 86 yards rushing on 24 carries good for a 3.58 yards per carry average against.

The early returns on general manager Mark Dominik and head coach Raheem Morris‘ decision to hire Keith Millard and Grady Stretz to teach the art of pass rushing and the importance of proper technique to a bunch of raw , but yet talented players in Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Kyle Moore, Roy Miller, Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, Michael Bennett thus far has had a profound impact out of the gate.

Thursday night is sure to be  a stiffer challenge for the Bucs defense as the New England Patriots offensive line kept rookie Ryan Mallett and third year quarterback Brian Hoyer clean and allowed zero sacks as the duo of Mallett and Hoyer completed 27 of 40 attempts for 335 yards and 2 touchdowns as Tom Brady watched from the sidelines.

Many gauge the success of a cornerback in the NFL on whether or not he shut’s down an opposing receiver or has gaudy interception stats. But delving deeper and pealing back the layers reveals other more riveting stats that are not commonly referenced by the main stream media. Such as Yards Per Target. A stat derived from taking the times a corner was targeted and dividing it by the number of yards said corner allowed. This gives us a metric to further judge just how many yards cornerbacks give up on average per each time he’s targeted by an opposing offense.

While not earth shattering, it does give fans another tool with which one can gauge the success of cornerbacks.

Many would expect to see Aqib Talib in the top half of the league, but due to his gambler’s type mentality he will routinely be slotted near the bottom half of the league in such a metric. Talib checked in with a ranking of 77th out of 100. One player who filled in admirably for Talib last season was EJ Biggers who managed to turn in a stellar performance as he was targeted 81 times, allowed 550-yards and a yards per target average of 6.79, good for 34th in the NFL.

The Bucs elder statesmen Ronde Barber was targeted 10 fewer times than Biggers and managed to allow 450-yards and a yards per target average of 6.34, good for 15^th in the NFL.

Associated Press

According to Pro Football Reference, there have been two quarterbacks in NFL history to pass for 25 or more touchdowns in a season, while throwing six or less interceptions.

One of those players is Tom Brady – whether you like him or not, you can’t deny his 36-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio last season was one of the best statistical years ever. The other player on that list: Second-year quarterback Josh Freeman. Not Brett Favre, not Peyton Manning, not Drew Brees and not even Dan Marino.

So why did ESPN’s John Clayton, back in January, lump Freeman in with Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, and Carson Palmer? Why in Terry Bradshaw’s list of top ten young quarterbacks, did Freeman rank behind Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, and Joe Flacco?

Why isn’t Freeman receiving as much hype coming into this season?  Why are many writers not seeing what I clearly see?  I’m tired of hearing Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, and Joe Flacco’s names being thrown around among the league’s top up-and-coming elite quarterbacks. I’m sick of hearing that Freeman’s numbers were inflated because of an easy schedule. While it’s true the Bucs had the 7^th easiest schedule, Matt Ryan’s Falcon’s were just behind him with the 12^th easiest schedule coming into 2010. Not that much of a difference if you ask me. In fact, according to the NFL’s strength of schedule, top signal callers Drew Brees and Philip Rivers faced an even easier schedule than Freeman.

I read a recent article by the writers from Gridiron Grit which lists quarterback power rankings for 2011. Matt Ryan ranks 10^th on the list. Sam Bradford-11^th and Joe Flacco 12^th. Josh Freeman was behind the eight-ball again, ranked 14^th. Don’t get me wrong, I think what Sam Bradford accomplished last season was incredible. As a rookie, to take a one-win team from the previous season and help transform them into a playoff contender is impressive – at any level. But ranking him ahead of Freeman? That’s ludicrous.

Even from a fantasy football perspective it doesn’t make sense. Using ESPN’s fantasy football scoring leaders, Freeman ranked 7^th in total fantasy points among quarterbacks in 2010. Bradford ranked 20^th, behind Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Freeman’s 364 rushing yards was second in the league, only behind Michael Vick. His 95.9 quarterback rating ranked 6^th. Peyton Manning ranked 10^th. Matt Ryan 11^th, Drew Brees 12^th. Sam Bradford’s rank: 25^th.  And two of the players ahead of Freeman – Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger – only played in 12 games. While it’s not out of the question that they both have the ability to maintain a rating over 96, it is quite possible those averages would drop given a full 16 games.

So what is Freeman’s ceiling given the numbers he’s put up thus far? Well, chances are wide receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn are going to get better. Kellen Winslow Jr. still looks to have a few years left in those legs, and LeGarrette Blount is coming off an impressive 1,000-yard rushing season. If they remain healthy, the offensive line will be at least as good as last season, if not better due to experience, and I’m not even going to mention any offensive upgrades due to free agency. And I expect Freeman himself to mature both as a pocket passer and a runner.

With the season looming, I see every reason to suggest Freeman’s fantasy football stock will increase, and perhaps soon he’ll begin to earn the media love he deserves.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seemingly rebuilt there defensive line over the past two drafts with the drafting of defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brain Price in 2010 and most recently with the drafting of defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. But with the NFL and the NFLPA* locked in labor strife with rumors of the participants emerging from negotiations with a new CBA, that will revert accrued seasons needed to become a free agent back to four seasons. The Bucs will have to make some tough decision on four players, as Barrett Ruud, Quincy Black, Adam Hayward and Nkio Kutviedas would all become unrestricted free agents based on everything that’s been reported.

Looking at what each player means to the Bucs both in the short term and long term will always be a deciding factor, but instead of writing about each player were going to look at what we will call “upside” by taking a players age, games played and production to determine which free agent linebackers have the most upside potential left in there respective careers to determine who the Bucs should keep and who they should pursue in free agency.

Below is the chart used to determine each players upside. One note is that I added Geno Hayes to the list just to show his upside potential. By taking a players total production (tackles, tackles for loss, interceptions, sacks, passes defended, and forced fumbles) and dividing it by the number of games played we get a players production per game.

To calculate a players “upside” with then add his (age, games played & years played) and divide it by his production rate which give us a raw upside number with which to grade a player on based solely on stats. The lower the “Upside Ratio” number the higher the ceiling is for each free agent.

Figuring out an approximate way in determining just how successful the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in 2010 tends to be a somewhat fruitless excise at times. We all know they improved from 3-13 in 2009, to 10-6 in 2010, but just how effective were they when you break down each drive, in each game you ask? Well for starters the team as we all know missed the playoffs, but for the most part they were efficient. The Bucs offense had 172 drives in 2010, managed 31.65 yards per drive, had a total of 37 three & outs (21.5%) and punted 76 times (44.2%). However, they turned 63 of those drives in to scoring opportunities and managed to score on 58 of them eventually (35 touchdowns & 23 field goals). Accounting for an efficiency rating of 33.7%.

The chart below breaks down just how efficient the team did on both offense and defense in 2010.

Through the first three games of the 2010 season, there’s been one constant on both sides of the football for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers “PRESSURE” on the offensive side the inability of the “filthy five” to keep second year signal caller Josh Freeman unscathed has been a contributing factor to the offenses dismal showing and inability to produce points. On the defensive side of the football the team’s inability to rattle opposing quarterbacks has been their Achilles heel.

To see just how bad each individual player has been through the first three games on both the offensive line and the defensive line at protecting against pressure and applying pressure we took sacks, quarterback hits, & quarterback pressures (force QB to escape pocket) and divided by the number of snaps each player played against the pass.

Below is the list for both the offensive and defensive line players thus far.

The quintessential blocking receiver dropping another pass

Just how bad were the hands that made up the receiving corps last season, you ask? Well, for starters other then the Oakland Raiders, who had three receivers in the top 10 worst hands category, not sure a team fielded a worse receiving corps then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in 2009. Even if you discount Mark Bradley’s drop numbers as they were accumulated as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs the Bucs still managed to have four receivers rank in the top 30 worst hands category. Six-year veteran, Michael Clayton was the headliner, ranking fourth with a drop percentage of 23.81%. The second worst set of hands on the team belonged to Antonio “Freelancer” Bryant who managed to crack the top 20 and cash in at the 20th spot with a drop percentage of 13.33%. The teams third and fourth receivers, Sammie Stroughter and Maurice Stovall ranked 27th and 30th respectively with drop percentages of 11.43% and 11.11%.

Using stats from ProFootballFocus.com & FantsayFootballToday.com along with a mathematical formula that Khaled Elsayed devised and an Excel spreadsheet below is the entire 107 wide receivers that were utilized for the “Worst Hands Category”.

Here is the formula written out:
[Dropped Passes/(Dropped Passes + Receptions)] x 100 = Drop Percentage

After reading Sam Monson’s “Tackle Inefficiency Rating” on Profootballfocus.com it got me to thinking, which sometimes can lead to some hair brain ideas and self debating. Monson, however has devised a formula to grade each individual defensive player’s ability at making solo tackles using a simple mathematical equation. Even though tackles are tracked by the league, they are not an official stat. Which is why there is such a widespread discrepancy from team to team and stats you see posted on NFL.com, ESPN.com and other news outlets compared to what each actual team tracks.

But more importantly judging missed tackles is nothing more then mere subjective speculation depending on the actual scheme, angle and assignments of each individual defensive player.  When you factor in all the dynamics on the field and add to it that each statistician grades plays differently you are left with a conundrum to figure out. Basing an opinion solely on stats seems pointless at times without film footage or concrete knowledge of a player’s responsibility within a said scheme.

Using the formula: (Number of Missed Tackles/[Number of Missed Tackles + Number of Solo Tackles]) x 100 = TIR.

We broke down each of the 32 league teams TIR. The first table below is that of just Tampa Bay Buccaneers players from the 2009 season with Sean Jones added to the individual player list.

The second table is a breakdown by team, of each teams “Tackle Inefficiency Rating” its not surprising to see the Bucs were one of worst as everyone saw with their own eyes bunches of missed tackle in every game. But what was startling to see was that both of the Superbowl participants from last season were ranked in in the top ten worst tackling teams, furthermore eight of the twelve playoff teams from 2009 were ranked in the top 15 worst tackling teams in the NFL.

The Rams one of the  worst team in the league and the team that holds the number one overall draft pick in this Aprils draft was actually the best team in terms of “Tackle Inefficiency Rating”.