Since 1937 there have been eighty-seven rookie quarterbacks start at least six games in their rookie season and in their second year, of their respective NFL careers. Based on completion percentage, touchdown passes and yards per attempt on average those three categories have improved from year one to year two an average of: Comp% 2.33%, TD 4, Yards / Attempt .235%.
While it doesn’t mean a whole lot when talking about Josh Freeman’s development and the expected improvement many have for him heading in to his second season as the Bucs starter. It still however sheds some light on what the average improvement statistically has been for quarterbacks in year two of their maturation process throughout the history of the NFL.
It’s also an indication that some pundits and fans might be expecting, more then what the norm has been with regards to statistical on field improvement from one’s rookie season to there second season under center.
The biggest two indicators that can be derived from the data is that if a quarterback in year two throws for a higher yards per attempt average his touchdowns’ increase by an average of 6.
On the flip side quarterbacks who had no change or a decrease in yards per attempt from there rookie season to there second season usually only saw there touchdowns improve by an average of 1.4 or 4.6 less then those who had an increase from there rookie season to year two.
A higher yards per attempt average from year one to year two also saw an upswing in a players completion percentage by nearly 5%, conversely quarterbacks who had no change or a decrease in yards per attempt from there rookie season to there second season saw a decrease of nearly 1% in there completion percentage.
So the prudent thing to watch closely this coming season might be Freeman’s yards per attempt average as its a higher indicator of improved statistical play.
| Player | Tm | Cmp% RC | Cmp% 2nd Yr | Variance | TD RC | TD 2nd Yr | Variance | Y/A RC | Y/A 2nd YR | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Average | 50.03% | 52.36% | 2.33% | 10 | 14 | 4 | 6.47 | 6.70 | 0.235 | |
| Fran Tarkenton | MIN | 56.10% | 61.80% | 5.70% | 18 | 11 | -7 | 7.13 | 12.29 | 5.16 |
| Emmett Mortell | PHI | 25.40% | 49.50% | 24.10% | 2 | 22 | 20 | 4.51 | 7.89 | 3.38 |
| Spec Sanders | NYY | 41.80% | 54.40% | 12.60% | 4 | 14 | 10 | 5.2 | 8.43 | 3.23 |
| Ed Matesic | PHI | 33.30% | 52.80% | 19.50% | 2 | 24 | 22 | 4.63 | 6.75 | 2.12 |
| Norm Snead | WAS | 45.90% | 52.00% | 6.10% | 11 | 22 | 11 | 6.23 | 8.27 | 2.04 |
| Donovan McNabb | PHI | 49.10% | 41.80% | -7.30% | 8 | 18 | 10 | 4.39 | 6.17 | 1.78 |
| Richard Todd | NYJ | 40.10% | 50.20% | 10.10% | 3 | 11 | 8 | 5.37 | 7.03 | 1.66 |
| Dan Marino | MIA | 58.40% | 64.20% | 5.80% | 20 | 48 | 28 | 7.47 | 9.01 | 1.54 |
| Steve Fuller | KAN | 54.10% | 60.30% | 6.20% | 6 | 10 | 4 | 5.5 | 7.03 | 1.53 |
| Bob Snyder | RAM | 37.90% | 41.40% | 3.50% | 2 | 7 | 5 | 5.73 | 7.25 | 1.52 |
| Dan Fouts | SDG | 44.80% | 48.50% | 3.70% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 5.8 | 7.31 | 1.51 |
| Joe Pisarcik | NYG | 42.70% | 47.50% | 4.80% | 4 | 12 | 8 | 5.59 | 6.96 | 1.37 |
| Mike Pagel | BAL | 50.20% | 49.70% | -0.50% | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5.8 | 7.17 | 1.37 |
| Peyton Manning | IND | 56.70% | 62.10% | 5.40% | 26 | 26 | 0 | 6.5 | 7.76 | 1.26 |
| Alex Smith | SFO | 50.90% | 58.10% | 7.20% | 1 | 16 | 15 | 5.3 | 6.54 | 1.24 |
| Trent Edwards | BUF | 56.10% | 65.50% | 9.40% | 7 | 11 | 4 | 6.06 | 7.22 | 1.16 |
| Steve DeBerg | SFO | 45.40% | 60.00% | 14.60% | 8 | 17 | 9 | 5.2 | 6.32 | 1.12 |
| Joe Ferguson | BUF | 44.50% | 51.30% | 6.80% | 4 | 12 | 8 | 5.73 | 6.84 | 1.11 |
| David Carr | HOU | 52.50% | 56.60% | 4.10% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5.84 | 6.82 | 0.98 |
| Bob Griese | MIA | 50.20% | 52.40% | 2.20% | 15 | 21 | 6 | 6.06 | 6.97 | 0.91 |
| Johnny Unitas | BAL | 55.60% | 57.10% | 1.50% | 9 | 24 | 15 | 7.57 | 8.47 | 0.9 |
| Bernie Kosar | CLE | 50.00% | 58.40% | 8.40% | 8 | 17 | 9 | 6.36 | 7.26 | 0.9 |
| Jim Zorn | SEA | 47.40% | 41.40% | -6.00% | 12 | 16 | 4 | 5.86 | 6.72 | 0.86 |
| Jeff Garcia | SFO | 60.00% | 63.30% | 3.30% | 11 | 31 | 20 | 6.78 | 7.63 | 0.85 |
| Carson Palmer | CIN | 60.90% | 67.80% | 6.90% | 18 | 32 | 14 | 6.71 | 7.54 | 0.83 |
| Steve Beuerlein | RAI | 44.10% | 49.80% | 5.70% | 8 | 13 | 5 | 6.9 | 7.73 | 0.83 |
| Tim Couch | CLE | 55.90% | 63.70% | 7.80% | 15 | 7 | -8 | 6.13 | 6.9 | 0.77 |
| Jack Scarbath | WAS | 34.90% | 40.40% | 5.50% | 9 | 7 | -2 | 6.68 | 7.32 | 0.64 |
| Joe Namath | NYJ | 48.20% | 49.30% | 1.10% | 18 | 19 | 1 | 6.53 | 7.17 | 0.64 |
| Ryan Leaf | SDG | 45.30% | 50.00% | 4.70% | 2 | 11 | 9 | 5.26 | 5.85 | 0.59 |
| David Woodley | MIA | 53.80% | 51.20% | -2.60% | 14 | 11 | -3 | 5.66 | 6.23 | 0.57 |
| Quincy Carter | DAL | 51.10% | 56.60% | 5.50% | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6.09 | 6.63 | 0.54 |
| Tobin Rote | GNB | 37.10% | 41.40% | 4.30% | 7 | 15 | 8 | 5.5 | 6.02 | 0.52 |
| Vince Young | TEN | 51.50% | 62.30% | 10.80% | 12 | 9 | -3 | 6.16 | 6.66 | 0.5 |
| Troy Aikman | DAL | 52.90% | 56.60% | 3.70% | 9 | 11 | 2 | 5.97 | 6.46 | 0.49 |
| Kerry Collins | CAR | 49.40% | 56.00% | 6.60% | 14 | 14 | 0 | 6.27 | 6.74 | 0.47 |
| Neil O'Donnell | PIT | 54.50% | 59.10% | 4.60% | 11 | 13 | 2 | 6.86 | 7.29 | 0.43 |
| Butch Songin | BOS | 47.70% | 46.20% | -1.50% | 22 | 14 | -8 | 6.32 | 6.74 | 0.42 |
| John Elway | DEN | 47.50% | 56.30% | 8.80% | 7 | 18 | 11 | 6.42 | 6.84 | 0.42 |
| Joe Kapp | MIN | 47.70% | 52.00% | 4.30% | 8 | 10 | 2 | 6.48 | 6.83 | 0.35 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 60.00% | 63.10% | 3.10% | 14 | 21 | 7 | 6.94 | 7.24 | 0.3 |
| Jim McMahon | CHI | 57.10% | 59.30% | 2.20% | 9 | 12 | 3 | 7.15 | 7.4 | 0.25 |
| Jason Campbell | WAS | 53.10% | 60.00% | 6.90% | 10 | 12 | 2 | 6.27 | 6.47 | 0.2 |
| Parker Hall | RAM | 51.00% | 42.10% | -8.90% | 9 | 7 | -2 | 5.9 | 6.05 | 0.15 |
| Hugh McCullough | PIT | 32.00% | 37.10% | 5.10% | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4.43 | 4.56 | 0.13 |
| Charlie Batch | DET | 57.10% | 55.90% | -1.20% | 11 | 13 | 2 | 7.19 | 7.25 | 0.06 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 66.40% | 62.70% | -3.70% | 17 | 17 | 0 | 8.88 | 8.9 | 0.02 |
| Neil Lomax | STL | 50.40% | 53.20% | 2.80% | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6.67 | 6.67 | 0 |
| Steve Walsh | NOR | 53.50% | 53.50% | 0.00% | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6.02 | 6.02 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | JAX | 57.20% | 60.50% | 3.30% | 14 | 15 | 1 | 6.74 | 6.67 | -0.07 |
| Craig Whelihan | SDG | 49.80% | 46.60% | -3.20% | 6 | 8 | 2 | 5.73 | 5.63 | -0.1 |
| Kyle Boller | BAL | 51.80% | 55.60% | 3.80% | 7 | 13 | 6 | 5.63 | 5.52 | -0.11 |
| Frankie Albert | SFO | 52.80% | 52.90% | 0.10% | 14 | 18 | 4 | 7.13 | 6.99 | -0.14 |
| Joey Harrington | DET | 50.10% | 55.80% | 5.70% | 12 | 17 | 5 | 5.35 | 5.2 | -0.15 |
| Rick Mirer | SEA | 56.40% | 51.20% | -5.20% | 12 | 11 | -1 | 5.83 | 5.65 | -0.18 |
| Warren Moon | HOU | 57.60% | 53.10% | -4.50% | 12 | 15 | 3 | 7.42 | 7.19 | -0.23 |
| Tony Banks | STL | 52.20% | 51.70% | -0.50% | 15 | 14 | -1 | 6.91 | 6.68 | -0.23 |
| Rodney Peete | DET | 52.80% | 52.40% | -0.40% | 5 | 13 | 8 | 7.58 | 7.28 | -0.3 |
| Otto Graham | CLE | 54.60% | 60.60% | 6.00% | 17 | 25 | 8 | 10.54 | 10.23 | -0.31 |
| Cade McNown | CHI | 54.00% | 55.00% | 1.00% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6.23 | 5.88 | -0.35 |
| Archie Manning | NOR | 48.60% | 51.30% | 2.70% | 6 | 18 | 12 | 6.58 | 6.21 | -0.37 |
| Jim Plunkett | NWE | 48.20% | 47.60% | -0.60% | 19 | 8 | -11 | 6.58 | 6.19 | -0.39 |
| Mark Rypien | WAS | 54.80% | 58.80% | 4.00% | 18 | 22 | 4 | 8.32 | 7.92 | -0.4 |
| Terry Bradshaw | PIT | 38.10% | 54.40% | 16.30% | 6 | 13 | 7 | 6.47 | 6.06 | -0.41 |
| Fred Enke | DET | 45.20% | 44.40% | -0.80% | 11 | 6 | -5 | 6.01 | 5.58 | -0.43 |
| Jeff George | IND | 54.20% | 60.20% | 6.00% | 16 | 10 | -6 | 6.44 | 6 | -0.44 |
| Randy Johnson | ATL | 43.70% | 49.30% | 5.60% | 12 | 10 | -2 | 6.08 | 5.63 | -0.45 |
| Bill Munson | RAM | 48.40% | 53.90% | 5.50% | 9 | 10 | 1 | 6.87 | 6.37 | -0.5 |
| Lamar McHan | CRD | 41.20% | 37.70% | -3.50% | 6 | 11 | 5 | 5.78 | 5.24 | -0.54 |
| Dan Pastorini | HOU | 47.00% | 48.20% | 1.20% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6.3 | 5.72 | -0.58 |
| Jake Plummer | ARI | 53.00% | 59.20% | 6.20% | 15 | 17 | 2 | 7.44 | 6.83 | -0.61 |
| Karl Sweetan | DET | 50.80% | 41.80% | -9.00% | 4 | 10 | 6 | 5.85 | 5.09 | -0.76 |
| Jim Kelly | BUF | 59.40% | 59.70% | 0.30% | 22 | 19 | -3 | 7.49 | 6.68 | -0.81 |
| Phil Simms | NYG | 50.60% | 48.00% | -2.60% | 13 | 15 | 2 | 6.58 | 5.77 | -0.81 |
| Steve Grogan | NWE | 50.70% | 48.00% | -2.70% | 11 | 18 | 7 | 7.21 | 6.3 | -0.91 |
| Tom Flores | OAK | 54.00% | 51.90% | -2.10% | 12 | 15 | 3 | 6.9 | 5.95 | -0.95 |
| Y.A. Tittle | BCL | 55.70% | 51.20% | -4.50% | 16 | 14 | -2 | 8.73 | 7.64 | -1.09 |
| Scott Hunter | GNB | 46.00% | 43.20% | -2.80% | 7 | 6 | -1 | 7.42 | 6.29 | -1.13 |
| Bob Hoernschemeyer | CHR | 49.20% | 42.20% | -7.00% | 14 | 4 | -10 | 6.56 | 5.35 | -1.21 |
| Marc Bulger | STL | 64.50% | 63.20% | -1.30% | 14 | 22 | 8 | 8.53 | 7.23 | -1.3 |
| Pat Haden | RAM | 57.10% | 56.50% | -0.60% | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8.53 | 7.18 | -1.35 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 61.10% | 58.30% | -2.80% | 16 | 22 | 6 | 7.93 | 6.47 | -1.46 |
| Doug Williams | TAM | 37.60% | 23.40% | -14.20% | 7 | 2 | -5 | 6.03 | 4.44 | -1.59 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 48.20% | 21.10% | -27.10% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5.29 | 3.53 | -1.76 |
| Dennis Shaw | BUF | 55.50% | 58.00% | 2.50% | 10 | 21 | 11 | 7.81 | 5.91 | -1.9 |
| Davey O'Brien | PHI | 49.30% | 44.80% | -4.50% | 6 | 5 | -1 | 6.59 | 4.66 | -1.93 |
| Harry Newman | NYG | 39.00% | 37.60% | -1.40% | 11 | 1 | -10 | 7.15 | 4.2 | -2.95 |
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