Bucs Central

Aqib Talib – Free Agent Corners & Potential “Upside Ratio”

With the potential bind the Bucs could be faced with over Aqib Talib‘s latest transgression, and his continual running afoul of the law, not withstanding the current labor strife. No one is sure even with a trial date set for sometime in 2012, that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell wont suspend Talib under the league’s personal conduct policy. So continuing on in a metric we unveiled the other day using a method we devised to determine the upside of potential free agent linebackers, using solely a players past statistics to determine his “Upside Ratio” the ratio is based on a players age, years played, & games played versus his actual production. The lower his upside ratio number the better value said player represents for his prospective new team.

We went ahead and ran the numbers for corners. We also ran Talib’s numbers just so everyone would have an idea of what keeping Talib would represent heading into the future. Ironically the lone player most fans have been pining for Nnamdi Asomugha, represents the second worst “upside ratio” of any potential free agent addition the Bucs could make this off-season with regards to replacing Talib. However, three players who I personally like in Brent Grimes, Eric Wright & Jonathan Joseph rank one through three respectively, excluding Talib of course.

The chart shown below lists a players production rate ( interceptions + passes defensed + sacks + forced fumbles + tackles / games) then using a players age, years played & games played versus his actual production rate were able to get his “upside ratio”.

Right click on image and choose view image to see larger version

While I know this is not the soundest way of figuring out if a player is a fit for a defensive scheme and it might not actually be a useable method of determining a players true upside value. It’s an attempt at figuring out if past production can be used to determine a player’s future upside. It also doesn’t take into account the monetary risk reward that’s associated with signing free agents.

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