Posted in General News

Kirwan: Expectations “Too High” For Rookie DT

by Staff Report on May 11, 2010

The tenor amongst most fans is that the additions of Gerald McCoy and Brian Price will greatly aid the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense in 2010. But Pat Kirwan, the former NFL front office executive and Tampa scout who co-hosts “Movin’ the Chains” heard exclusively on Sirius NFL Radio, penned a column on NFL.com titled “History Shows Expectations for Rookie Defensive Tackles are too High.” Suggesting fans should temper their collective expectations, sighting that since 2006, a total of 17 defensive tackles were selected in the first two-rounds of the NFL Draft. The 17 players combined for a total of 20.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and 216 tackles. The two players that had any significant impact as rookies were Amobi Okoye in 2007 with 5.5 sacks and Jason Jones in 2008 with 5 sacks.

Note: There were actually 18 defensive tackles taken in the first two rounds dating back to 2006. The Kansas City Chiefs drafted Turk McBride in the 2007 NFL Draft out of Tennessee with the 54th selection of the second-round. Not that it changes much, as he managed 1 sack and 14 tackles as a rookie for the Chiefs.

Expounding on Kirwan’s data and going back to 1982 when the NFL began officially keeping sack totals, we see that there is the exception to the norm. The data was compiled using Profootball-Reference.com sortable draft agitator.

The first list is all 101 defensive tackles drafted from 1982-2009 in the first and second rounds.

Rookie production by DTs taken in first two rounds from 1982-2009
YearRDPickPlayerTeamTacklesSacksForced fumbles
1982238David GallowaySTL020
1983116Mike PittsATL7570
1984113Keith MillardMIN0110
1984231Bob SlaterWAS000
198513Ray ChildressHOU1353.52
1985117Kevin BrooksDAL020
1985122William PerryCHI3150
198612Tony CasillasATL11112
198719Jerome BrownPHI040
1987112Danny NoonanDAL010
1988125Scott DavisRAI05.50
1988250Michael Dean PerryCLE2560
1989242Dennis ByrdNYJ070
199013Cortez KennedySEA4811
1990110Ray AgnewNWE522.50
1990232Fred WashingtonCHI000
1990241Jeff AlmHOU00.50
199111Russell MarylandDAL334.53
199116Eric SwannPHO2240
1991117Bobby WilsonWAS254.50
1991120Kelvin PritchettDAL261.50
1991236George ThorntonSDG000
1991249Chris ZorichCHI1000
199213Sean GilbertRAM5451
1992116Chester McGlocktonRAI1830
1992239Robert HarrisMIN400
1992243Eddie BlakeMIA000
1992254Shane DronettDEN536.51
1993124Leonard RenfroPHI1600
1993126Dana StubblefieldSFO6410.51
1993235Carl SimpsonCHI70.50
1993255John ParrellaBUF210
199411Dan WilkinsonCIN445.50
199417Bryant YoungSFO4961
199418Sam AdamsSEA2740
1994120Tim BowensMIA5232
1994126Henry FordHOU1100
1994250Brentson BucknerPIT1820
1995112Warren SappTAM2731
1995115Ellis JohnsonIND184.50
1995120Luther EllissDET1900
1996120Daryl GardenerMIA3210
1996245James ManleyMIN000
199712Darrell RussellOAK443.51
1997128Trevor PryceDEN2420
1997231Rick TerryNYJ2220
1998231Leon BenderOAK000
1999115Anthony McFarlandTAM1410
1999124Reggie McGrewSFO300
1999129Dimitrius UnderwoodMIN1740
1999248Russell DavisCHI1720
1999252John ThorntonTEN204.51
1999256Larry SmithJAX1230
1999258Montae ReagorDEN1000
200016Corey SimonPHI529.52
2000125Chris HovanMIN4820
2000242Cornelius GriffinNYG2550
2000255Fred RobbinsMIN310
200113Gerard WarrenCLE6150
2001112Damione LewisSTL1030
2001113Marcus StroudJAX2500
2001129Ryan PickettSTL190.50
2001244Kris JenkinsCAR3420
2001261Shaun RogersDET8232
200216Ryan SimsKAN600
200219John HendersonJAX556.51
2002112Wendell BryantARI201.50
2002115Albert HaynesworthTEN3010
2002242Larry TripplettIND2100
200314Dewayne RobertsonNYJ431.50
200316Johnathan SullivanNOR3411
200319Kevin WilliamsMIN5210.51
2003112Jimmy KennedySTL200
2003125William JosephNYG711
2003257Anthony AdamsSFO261.50
2004114Tommie HarrisCHI433.51
2004123Marcus TubbsSEA1311
2004236Junior SiaviiKAN910
2004247Tank JohnsonCHI120.50
2004251Dwan EdwardsBAL100
2005116Travis JohnsonHOU2610
2005131Mike PattersonPHI443.51
2005237Shaun CodyDET281.51
2006112Haloti NgataBAL1310
2006114Brodrick BunkleyPHI600
2006126John McCargoBUF500
2007110Amobi OkoyeHOU235.51
2007113Adam CarrikerSTL2120
2007116Justin HarrellGNB1000
2007233Alan BranchARI800
2007254Turk McBrideKAN1410
200815Glenn DorseyKAN3211
200817Sedrick EllisNOR2040
2008129Kentwan BalmerSFO600
2008247Trevor LawsPHI1100
2008254Jason JonesTEN3153
200919B.J. RajiGNB1910
2009124Peria JerryATL000
2009240Ron BraceNWE610
2009256Fili MoalaIND500
2009262SenDerrick MarksTEN710

The second list is the top 22 defensive tackles in terms of sacks in their respective rookie seasons.

Rookie production by DTs taken in first two rounds from 1982-2009
YearRDPickPlayerTeamTacklesSacksForced fumbles
1984113Keith MillardMIN0110
1993126Dana StubblefieldSFO6410.51
200319Kevin WilliamsMIN5210.51
200016Corey SimonPHI529.52
1983116Mike PittsATL7570
1989242Dennis ByrdNYJ070
1992254Shane DronettDEN536.51
200219John HendersonJAX556.51
1988250Michael Dean PerryCLE2560
199417Bryant YoungSFO4961
1988125Scott DavisRAI05.50
199411Dan WilkinsonCIN445.50
2007110Amobi OkoyeHOU235.51
1985122William PerryCHI3150
199213Sean GilbertRAM5451
2000242Cornelius GriffinNYG2550
200113Gerard WarrenCLE6150
2008254Jason JonesTitans3153
199111Russell MarylandDAL334.53
1991117Bobby WilsonWAS254.50

The NFL average for sacks from rookie defensive tackles since 1982 is 2.386, which rounded up comes to 2.4. Based on that sack number, there has been a total of 38 players preform above league average for rookie defensive tackles or 38% of the defensive tackles drafted in the first two-rounds since 1982 have had atleast 2.5 sacks as rookies.

For the sake of argument. We will say that 5 sacks as a rookie DT is stellar. So based on history 18% of the 11 defensive tackles drafted in 2010 have a chance of having what many pundits and fans would call a stellar rookie season. That breaks down too just two out of eleven defensive tackles chosen. Is there a chance that the Bucs drafted both of those players? Sure, albeit highly unlikely.

Be Sociable, Share!

Leave a Comment

Previous post:

Next post: